What is the likelihood of managing to register a domain after it expires?

So I have my eyes set on a .com domain that was registered in 2014 and the registrant has updated it up till the present date. It expires in the start of February. Last year the domain was updated almost half a month late. It is currently sitting unused using domainsbyproxy and on godaddy. When the day it expired comes will it be available to anyone? Would I be able to swoop in and register it before they do? Or is there some sort of buffer? Thanks

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